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Premier League
- Manchester City v Hull over 2.5 [19/40]
- Manchester City Team Total over 2.5 [4/5]
This is as good a spot as any for Manchester City to recover from that loss on the road to Cardiff City last week. Pellegrini’s men should be all worked up after being worked hard this week to recover the points they lost last week. Their saving grace was that league co-favorites Chelsea and Man United drew in their match last week.
Man City can score, we all know that. Last week they got caught at a revved up Cardiff City stadium full of rambunctious fans who cheered their beloved underdogs on and really became the 12th man. What is of concern though for City is their apparent weakness at the back and the sloppy play of Joe Hart between the pipes. 3 of my 4 spreadsheets give Hull City a goal so I am reluctant to lay the 2 goals with City simply because of how they might play IF they get a big lead and start allowing Hull to come forward a bit. They looked quite sloppy off of set pieces at the back last week. However, all 4 spreadsheets give me at least 3 Man City goals being scored in this game with 3 spreadsheets coming back at 3-1 and the fourth at 4-0.
Manchester City has seen the OVER 2.5 go 12-3 in their last 15 home games vs promoted clubs. That is a resounding 80% stat that I cannot overlook. The over 3.5 is 4-2 in their last 6 in this situation. Breaking it down further for our Team Goals selection is the fact that they have managed to score 3 goals in 10 of those 15 games. This year’s Manchester City side is the most attack oriented City squad in 2 seasons, definitely more than under Mancini’s tenure, especially last season.
Hull lost 2-0 to Chelsea in the season opener. That game could have been much worse but Mourinho clearly shut the game down after Chelsea went up two goals focussing instead to use the remainder of the match to get some more possession training in because if any of you watched that game it was obvious that Chelsea really stopped pushing forward. Furthermore, there was a pissed pk in that first half that could have made the soreline less attractive for Hull.
In my view, City won’t let up if they get up 2-0. They are well rested, at home (where they have won 38 of their last 44) and simply have too much power at the front combined with their attack minded play to let off the gas in this game as Chelsea did against Hull when they went up 2-0. Sure, City are bound to concede a goal here or there because of their style under Pellegrini but this is the game where Hull can only hope to keep the scoreline respectable, something that City won’t care for.
German Bundesliga
Hannover v Maenz over 2.5 [1.85]
A couple of very significant trends stuck out at me when analyzing this game.
Hannover has seen the over 2.5 go 13-4 (77%) in their last 17 matches against opponents currently in the top six in the table (Mainz sits 4th). Hannover sits in the top half of the table which brings into play another big number. Mainz is 8-2 “over” 2.5 (80%) in their LAST 10 ROAD GAMES against teams in the top half of the table.
Mainz has scored 7 goals in 3 games for an average of just over 2 per game while conceding 3. Hannover has scored 4 and allowed 4 in their first 3 games. 3 spread sheets came back 2-1 and the fourth 2-2. The result is split so I focussed on the stronger angle which is 3 goals. In fact, my spreadsheets made this total 3.51 implying a high probability of 3 goals in this match.
The last two games saw 2-1 and 2-2 finals and a smilar result should be in the cards.
Hannover has been trending significantly over in the league going 8-1 “over” in their last 8 league games dating back to last season. With both teams off to decent starts in the league, expect Hannover to continue their attack minded home play, especially at home where they love to push forward (13-7 over 2.5 last 20 home games) Given the aforementioned trends, I see no other way that they can play. Mainz will want to stay close and not drift in the table so I expect them to try to match Hannover’s pace in what could be a very entertaining open affair. 2-1 or 2-2 seems likely.
Just taking these as singles today, but a double isn’t a bad choice either.
Best of luck! Rhys.
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