Who Can Top The Premier League Drop?

NextBet researchers analyse the Premier League relegation battle to assess the prospects of Swansea, West Brom, Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff and Sunderland.

The first issue is where to draw the line. Are Swansea really in a relegation dogfight? Can Villa put their feet up? If bottom club Sunderland still have a mathematical possibility of overtaking Southampton, who sit in 8th place on 48 points, whilst 18th place Fulham can overtake Stoke, who are currently lying in 10th spot on 40 points. We however have decided to say with 99% certainty that Crystal Palace and above will be playing in the Premier League next season. Last season saw the safety mark being 37 points, and this time around it would seem that the safety mark will be lower still. Aston Villa and Crystal Palace currently have 34 points with six games left to play and they both have the playing and coaching staff to grind out at an average of 0.5 points per game in the final run-in, especially seen as Villa and Palace play each other next Saturday.

Swansea City and West Brom have rather more cause for concern, but bookmakers still only are giving 1 to 10 payouts for West Brom to survive the drop. We are 95% that both clubs will finish at least above 17th place, though West Brom in particular can count themselves lucky that there are three worse teams below them in the table.

We will now, in no particular order, take a look at the key factors in any club’s success or lack thereof as the season draws to a close. The manager/head coach is the man with the plan, choosing the tactics, naming the first eleven and providing the motivation. A good manager can get the most out of his players, with experience, tactical nous and motivational skills varying from person to person. The players are of course very much the essential component, and a club that has star players helping to balance out a hard-working, talented and experienced team would most likely not be in a relegation battle to start with. The final key component in this trinity of analysis is the fixture schedule; trips to Anfield are much less likely to result in points than home games against mid-table sides with little to play for. We have given marks out of ten for these factors, though they serve more as a rough guide to the textual analysis.

 

Manager: Neil Adams (3/10). In the spirit of shooting oneself in the foot the Canaries took the decision to sack Chris Hughton with five games left to play and replace him with youth team boss Neil Adams. Experience? Zero. Tactical nous and motivational skills? Unknown. Something of a wild card, the Norwich board will look somewhat deranged if they lost their last five games or look like geniuses if they sail to safety. Adams led the Norwich youth team to FA Youth Cup glory last season, leaving Mr “nice guy” Hughton to ruminate on the number one lesson in club management: cripple your youth team’s chances of success lest directors consider what the youth team boss can do if put in charge of the first team.

Players: (7/10) Big money signing Ricky van Wolfswinkel has a grand total of 1 Premier League goal this season, whilst £5 million man Gary Hooper has 5. Playing with just the one striker has held them back, and is probably why Delia Smith sacked Chirs Hughton. The team is otherwise fleshed out with solid defenders like Bassong and Russell Martin, and certainly have a decent amount of experience and talent to get out of the hole they find themselves in.

Fixtures: (2/10) Victory at Craven Cottage in their next match could be enough to secure survival at the end of the season. However a defeat would leave them just two points ahead of Fulham with the following fixtures left to play: Liverpool (H), Manchester United (A), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H). Frightening stuff. When United at Old Trafford is your easiest remaining game you know you are in trouble. United have been poor at home this season and have little to play for, but will still be the favourites going into that one. Chelsea and Liverpool are shooting for the title whilst Arsenal might need a win on the final day to secure Champions League football.

 

Manager: Felix Magath (7/10) A highly experienced and successful manager but a newcomer to the Premier League. Known as ‘Saddam’ for his emphasis on working his players to near breaking point on fitness and conditioning, he only arrived in February so has had little time to inflict his training methods on his players.

Players: (4/10) on paper they are some quality players here, but they have not been doing the business all season and are out of form. Darren Bent has been left to sit on the side-lines as 19 year old Cauley Woodrow (0 PL goals) has been utilized up front in recent games. Maarten Stekelenburg should be in his prime but has been dropped after some poor performances. Fulham have conceded 74 league goals this season. They have brought back Mahamadou Diarra to add some fight to the team, but he has been without a club since summer 2013. Diarra and Woodrow in the starting eleven shows how desperate Fulham have become.

Fixtures: (9/10) the home game with Norwich is of vital importance and a win will see them only two points from safety. Spurs (A), Hull (H), Stoke (A), Palace (H) gives them a run-in against mid-table sides with nothing to play for. There can be no excuses for failure, should they be relegated then the record 38 players used this season must be held responsible.

 

Manager: Ole Gunnar Solskjær (4/10) A man with no Premier League experience as manager before 2014, he has had success in charge of Manchester United Reserves and Molde, but has done little to justify Vincent Tan’s faith in him thus far. The “Baby-faced Assassin” says Cardiff now need a miracle to stay up. Mr Motivation!

Players: (5/10) Steven Caulker and Gary Medel are big money signings who have done well, but few others have been impressive for the Bluebirds thus far. January transfer signings included Kenwyne Jones, Fábio and Wilfred Zaha – not figures you want in the trenches as they have come from mid-table clubs where they have been judged as surplus to requirements. In truth they are not a bad squad, but one capable of miracles? Let’s say no.

Fixtures: (8/10) Would it take a miracle to pick up at least 9 points from the following games: Southampton (A), Stoke (H), Sunderland (A), Newcastle (A), Chelsea (H)? No, 3 mid-table teams and a relegation rival. Conceding three goals in each of their last three games is not a good omen.

 

Manager: Gus Poyet (6/10) No Premier League experience before this season, though he did a good job in his four years at Brighton. Poyet will not be giving up on the task of surviving until the mathematics are against him, and has the loyalty of the players simply by not being Paolo di Canio.

Players: (9/10) Adam Johnson, Fabio Borini, Emmanuelle Giaccherini, Steven Fletcher, Jozy Altidore, Lee Cattermole… they have some big players up at Sunderland. They proved they have passion and fight by beating rivals Newcastle home and away, and they proved their ability this season by reaching the League Cup final. Too good to go down? Not after picking up 1 point from their first eight games (why did they appoint di Canio again?).

Fixtures: (5/10) Mr Mourinho would have us believe that the Premier League table is a lie. Optimistic Mackems would agree with him here, as they have three games in hand on their relegation rivals. Trouble is that they have already played most of their winnable games… and lost. Spurs (A), Everton (H), Manchester City (A), Chelsea (A), Cardiff (H), Manchester United (H), West Brom (H), Swansea (H). They can beat Cardiff, West Brom and Swansea. They have the players to pick up a surprise win elsewhere. The winning streak though must start now as time runs out on their season.